Two platforms can list what appears to be the same prediction market while offering different contracts, prices, liquidity, fees, and funding requirements. A cross-venue comparison helps you choose where to take one position. It becomes arbitrage only when multiple complementary legs form a verified positive-edge bundle. Keeping those jobs separate prevents a cheaper-looking price from becoming an expensive mistake.
Comparison and arbitrage are different tasks
| Task | Reader’s goal | Required conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Venue comparison | Choose one venue for one side | “This venue currently offers the more suitable executable route for my order” |
| Arbitrage verification | Buy complementary legs that lock a net payout | “Both legs are equivalent, executable, matched in size, and positive after costs” |
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A comparison can be useful even when no arbitrage exists. It can reveal better liquidity, clearer rules, a preferred order type, or an already funded venue.
1. Confirm the contracts describe the same event
Place both rules side by side and compare:
- event condition;
- threshold or candidate;
- cutoff date, time, and timezone;
- resolution source;
- cancellation and postponement treatment;
- dispute or clarification process;
- winning payout and collateral.
Small language differences can dominate a large price difference. “Before December 31” and “by the end of December 31” may use different cutoffs. A market resolved by an official release can differ from one resolved by a named news source.
2. Normalize the outcome
Make sure the selected side expresses the same economic claim on both venues.
If venue A asks “Will X happen?” and venue B asks “Will X not happen?”, YES on A corresponds to NO on B. Hunch can normalize outcomes for comparison, but the native labels should remain visible so the trader can verify the mapping.
Write one sentence:
If that sentence cannot be completed unambiguously, stop the comparison.
3. Identify the displayed price
The number next to a market can be:
- a last trade;
- midpoint between bid and ask;
- best ask for a buyer;
- best bid for a seller;
- rounded implied probability;
- amount-specific average quote.
For a buy comparison, use the live ask or ticket estimate. For a sell comparison, use the bid or amount-specific proceeds estimate.
| Display | Useful for | Not sufficient for |
|---|---|---|
| Last trade | Recent historical context | Current executable comparison |
| Midpoint | Rough book center | Guaranteed buy or sell price |
| Best ask | Small immediate buy | Larger order without depth |
| Average quote | Selected amount | Future execution after the quote moves |
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4. Compare available liquidity and spread
A one-cent cheaper ask is unattractive if only a few shares are available and the next price level is much worse.
Check:
- size at the best price;
- average price for your amount;
- bid–ask spread;
- depth near the market;
- whether the venue uses a CLOB or AMM;
- how much could be sold later without a large concession.
Liquidity is about the ability to transact near an expected price. Volume is historical activity. They can move together, but they are not interchangeable.
5. Include fees and funding costs
Compare net acquisition or net sale proceeds:
net buy cost = execution cost + trading fee + funding and network cost
net sale proceeds = execution proceeds − trading fee − withdrawal or network cost
Do not assume both venues use the same fee model. Limitless currently distinguishes maker, taker, CLOB, and AMM behavior; Polymarket exposes market-specific fee rates. Recheck the current live terms.
Funding can dominate a small price advantage. Moving collateral can add bridge time, conversion cost, network risk, and missed execution.
6. Compare order support
One venue may support a resting limit order while another offers only an immediate quote for the selected market path.
Ask:
- Can I set a maximum price?
- Can the order rest?
- Can it fill partially?
- Can I cancel it?
- Does an immediate order use FOK, FAK, or another constraint?
- Does the AMM review expose a minimum received or maximum spent?
The more suitable venue depends on the job. A trader prioritizing immediate execution can choose differently from one willing to wait for a price.
7. Check venue readiness
The theoretical best price is not the best route if the account cannot execute it.
Verify:
- geographic and account access;
- destination wallet and balance;
- network and collateral asset;
- required signer or token approvals;
- minimum order;
- market status;
- withdrawal or redemption path.
Do not move funds until the market and quote have been checked. Funding a venue can take longer than the price gap lasts.
How Hunch surfaces alternatives
On a Hunch event ticket, the Similar markets area can show related listings from another venue. The Arbitrage page can also group matched markets while distinguishing verified live spreads from comparisons.
The workflow is:
- open the original market;
- inspect a matched alternative;
- verify rule and outcome mapping;
- compare executable price and size;
- open the chosen venue-specific ticket;
- review and submit only that intended order.
Hunch does not make a contract equivalent by displaying it nearby. Matching is a research aid that the trader should verify.
A venue-comparison worksheet
| Field | Venue A | Venue B |
|---|---|---|
| Native market URL | Record live value | Record live value |
| Exact outcome | Record live value | Record live value |
| Deadline and timezone | Record live value | Record live value |
| Resolution source | Record live value | Record live value |
| Market type | Record live value | Record live value |
| Executable average price | Record live value | Record live value |
| Available size | Record live value | Record live value |
| Fee estimate | Record live value | Record live value |
| Funding asset and network | Record live value | Record live value |
| Current balance/readiness | Record live value | Record live value |
| Exit liquidity | Record live value | Record live value |
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Complete it with live values. Do not publish empty or synthetic fields as a current market comparison.
Common comparison mistakes
- Comparing YES on one venue with the wrong native side on another.
- Using last trade on one venue and best ask on another.
- Ignoring the amount available at the headline price.
- Treating open interest as immediately executable liquidity.
- Choosing a venue before reading the resolution source.
- Moving funds for a price gap that disappears before arrival.
- Calling a one-sided venue choice “arbitrage.”