This guide walks through the first Hunch trade from market discovery to final review. It uses the live product flow checked on 15 August 2026 and explains what each number means, where estimates can change, and when it is better to stop rather than submit an order.
Before you begin
You need a Hunch account, access to a supported venue for the market you choose, and sufficient available funds for that destination. Venue availability, identity checks, funding routes, and legal eligibility can differ by jurisdiction and account. Hunch may show a market that you can research even when trading is not available to you.
- Use a market you understand well enough to explain its resolution rule in one sentence.
- Decide the maximum amount you are willing to lose before opening the trade ticket.
- Check the market’s venue, deadline, resolution source, bid–ask spread, and liquidity.
- Treat every price and share count before confirmation as an estimate until the order executes.
Step 1: Find an event
Open Hunch and browse the Markets table or use search. The discovery surface shows events across supported prediction-market venues, with volume, liquidity, odds, recent change, expiry, and quick-buy controls where available. Use those fields to narrow the list, not to skip due diligence. New to the format? Start with our beginner guide: https://www.hunch.trade/journal/what-are-prediction-markets
Select the event you want to inspect. An event can contain many individual markets—for example, one nominee market for each candidate—so the event title is not always the exact contract you will trade.
Step 2: Select the exact market and venue
On the event page, confirm the specific outcome row or market. Hunch shows the source venue and can link to its original market. Read the Description or market rules, then verify the deadline and resolution source. Similar-looking contracts on different venues can resolve differently. For venue context, see https://www.hunch.trade/journal/what-is-polymarket
In the product example captured for this guide, Hunch displayed the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee event and a Polymarket contract for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The page also showed live volume, liquidity, trades, a price chart, and similar markets. Those numbers are timestamped observations, not recommendations.
Step 3: Choose Buy or Sell, then YES or NO
The trade ticket first asks whether you want to buy or sell. For a first entry you will normally choose Buy, then choose YES if you believe the market underprices the chance of the stated outcome or NO if you believe it overprices that chance. The buttons show current executable indications for each side.
Step 4: Choose Market or Limit
A market order prioritizes execution against the liquidity currently available. The final average price may differ from the first visible quote, especially for a larger amount or a fast-moving market. A limit order specifies the maximum price you will pay when buying, or the minimum you will accept when selling, but it may remain open or never fill.
Do not choose Market merely because it is the default. Check urgency, spread, available depth, and how much price movement would invalidate your thesis. If you cannot explain the trade-off, reduce the size or pause and read the order-type guide before continuing.
Step 5: Enter the amount and read the estimate
Enter the amount you want to spend. Hunch expands the Details section and calculates an estimated average price per share, estimated spend, approximate share count, and potential payout. These fields translate a percentage into the position you are actually considering.
| Field | Meaning | What to verify |
|---|---|---|
| Average price per share | Estimated execution price across the order | Whether depth or slippage moves it away from the headline quote |
| Estimated spend | Approximate amount used for the order | That it stays within the maximum loss you chose |
| Shares (approx.) | Estimated outcome shares received | That it is not mistaken for a guaranteed fill |
| Potential payout | Gross redemption if those shares win and are held | That it is not profit and excludes the amount spent and applicable costs |
Swipe to view all columns →
A worked $10 interface example
With YES indicated at 20.1¢, entering $10 in the captured Hunch ticket produced an estimated average price of 20.1¢, estimated spend of $10, approximately 49.7512 shares, and a potential payout of $49.75. The displayed upside percentage assumed a winning resolution and did not turn the estimate into guaranteed profit.
The maximum economic loss on a fully executed long position is generally the amount spent plus applicable costs if the position resolves worthless. The potential gross payout is not the same as net profit: subtract the purchase cost and every relevant fee or funding cost.
Step 6: Sign in and make funds available
If you are signed out, pressing the trade button opens Hunch’s login or signup flow. In the verified interface, users could continue by email, Telegram, or a wallet. Do not share a seed phrase or private key with Hunch, a venue, a support account, or anyone claiming they can complete the trade for you.
After authentication, make sure funds are ready for the destination required by the trade. Hunch’s funding flow is destination-first: the relevant question is where the balance must be usable, not merely whether money exists somewhere in the account. Supported methods, networks, processing times, minimums, and fees can differ.
Step 7: Review before confirming
The confirmation review is the last checkpoint before submission. Verify the event, exact market, venue, Buy or Sell action, YES or NO side, order type, estimated price, shares, spend, potential payout, Hunch fee, venue fee, and the total impact on your available balance. If any value differs materially from the thesis you started with, go back rather than rushing through.
- The contract wording and resolution source match the event you intended to trade.
- The selected venue is available and appropriate for your account.
- The order side and type are correct.
- The estimated average price is acceptable after spread and slippage.
- The amount is within your preselected maximum loss.
- All displayed Hunch, venue, network, or funding fees are understood.
- You know whether the order should execute immediately or may remain open.
After you submit the order
Check the resulting order status rather than assuming a click equals a completed trade. A market order can fill at multiple prices, and a limit order can be open, partially filled, cancelled, or unfilled. The Portfolio and order-history surfaces are where you confirm what happened and monitor the position.
Record the execution price, share count, fees, and reason for the trade. Decide in advance what evidence or price movement would lead you to exit. A position can often be sold before resolution when the market is open and opposing liquidity exists, but neither the exit price nor an immediate fill is guaranteed.
Resolution, redemption, and withdrawal
If you hold the position through resolution, settlement follows the venue’s contract rules and process. Winning positions become redeemable according to the venue’s terms; losing positions become worthless. Redemption and withdrawal are separate operations from predicting the event, and their availability, timing, network, and costs can differ by venue.
Do not assume the balance returns automatically to every destination the instant the news is known. Wait for official resolution, check the position status in Hunch, then follow the venue-specific redemption and withdrawal flow shown by the product.
Common first-trade mistakes
- Trading the event headline without reading the exact market rule.
- Treating the displayed probability as the guaranteed execution price.
- Confusing potential payout with profit.
- Ignoring the venue attached to the contract.
- Using a market order in a wide or shallow order book without checking slippage.
- Funding the wrong destination or network.
- Increasing size because the interface shows a large upside percentage.
- Assuming an order filled without checking its status.