A prediction-market price summarizes where trading has cleared; it does not show how capital is distributed behind that number. Wallet positioning can reveal whether a market is broadly held, dominated by one account, or contested by meaningful capital on both sides. It cannot tell you which side is correct. The useful question is not “what are whales buying?” but “what evidence does the positioning add, and what could make that evidence misleading?”
What does wallet conviction mean?
Wallet conviction is an interpretation of how strongly an account appears to express a view through a position. A large position may indicate high confidence, a hedge, market-making inventory, legacy exposure, or simply a large bankroll. The position becomes more informative when combined with context.
| Signal | Useful question | Common false conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Position size | How large is the exposure in dollars and shares? | “The biggest wallet must be right” |
| Entry price | Did the wallet enter early, late, or across many prices? | “Current P&L equals forecasting ability” |
| Portfolio concentration | Is this a focused view or one of hundreds of small positions? | “A large notional is a high-conviction bet” |
| Holding time | Is the account maintaining, reducing, or flipping the position? | “One snapshot describes the strategy” |
| Resolved history | Has similar behavior worked across a meaningful sample? | “One winning market proves edge” |
| Counter-capital | Is meaningful tracked money positioned on the other side? | “Minority positioning is automatically contrarian alpha” |
Swipe to view all columns →
Conviction is evidence about behavior. It is not inside information and it is not a recommendation.
Start with the event, then the market, then the wallet
Hunch Graph is designed as a market-first network. The hierarchy matters:
- An event groups related market questions.
- A market identifies the exact outcome contract.
- YES and NO sides organize tracked holder exposure.
- A wallet node opens account-level context.
Beginning with a wallet can create selection bias: you notice an impressive account first and then search for a story that validates its position. Beginning with the event forces the contract and opposing side into view.
Understand what “tracked” means
No wallet graph can display every position without becoming unusable. The current Hunch Graph implementation filters its research set using activity, position-size, network-quality, concentration, and disagreement criteria. It also excludes identified market-maker behavior from the candidate set used for certain views.
That creates a deliberate sample:
- very small positions can be absent;
- inactive or low-quality networks can be omitted;
- the graph can emphasize contested or research-worthy structures;
- “tracked capital” is not identical to total market open interest or every holder balance.
The methodology should be disclosed wherever a Graph statistic might otherwise sound exhaustive.
Read tracked capital and minority capital together
Tracked capital measures the exposure represented by the current Graph sample. Minority capital measures the smaller side of a two-sided market within that sample.
Imagine a market with $1 million tracked:
- $950,000 on YES and $50,000 on NO is two-sided, but heavily concentrated;
- $650,000 on YES and $350,000 on NO reflects more substantial disagreement;
- $650,000 on YES held by one wallet and $350,000 on NO held by twenty wallets has a different structure from two equal-size holders.
Useful ratios include:
- minority share = minority tracked capital ÷ total tracked capital;
- average exposure per tracked holder;
- largest-holder share of tracked capital;
- number of wallets on each side.
Do not turn any one threshold into a universal law. The values are screening tools for deciding what to inspect next.
Distinguish disagreement from noise
A contested market has meaningful tracked positioning on both sides. That can signal different information sets, different time horizons, hedging, or disagreement about the resolution rule.
Before treating it as useful disagreement, check:
- whether the wallets entered at materially different times;
- whether one side is mostly one concentrated account;
- whether positions are hedges across related markets;
- whether the contract wording is ambiguous;
- whether liquidity is sufficient to exit;
- whether the accounts have meaningful resolved history.
Two large nodes do not necessarily represent two independent forecasts. They can be related accounts, mirrored strategies, liquidity providers, or cross-market hedges.
Use open P&L carefully
Open profit and loss compares a position’s current valuation with its cost basis. It is useful for understanding entry quality and pressure on a holder, but it can be misleading.
Open P&L can change because:
- the market moved after entry;
- the current valuation comes from a thin or stale quote;
- only part of the position could be exited near the displayed price;
- the wallet reduced or added exposure over time;
- unresolved gains can disappear at settlement.
A wallet with positive open P&L is not necessarily skilled; it may have one recent winner. A wallet with negative open P&L may be expressing a long-horizon view or hedge that cannot be evaluated from one market.
Read holder count and concentration
Holder count helps distinguish a broad distribution from a small number of large accounts. Concentration tells you whether one wallet dominates the sample.
| Pattern | Possible interpretation | Next check |
|---|---|---|
| Many holders, balanced capital | Broad disagreement | Entry timing and wallet independence |
| Many holders, one dominant wallet | One concentrated thesis versus a crowd | Largest-holder history and hedges |
| Few holders, large capital | Institutional-size or concentrated positioning | Liquidity and account relationships |
| One-sided tracked capital | Strong sample concentration or missing small accounts | Total market liquidity and untracked holders |
Swipe to view all columns →
One-sided Graph positioning does not prove market consensus. It means one side dominates the filtered tracked sample.
Inspect the exact market inside the event
An event can contain several related outcomes. In the production Graph session reviewed for this guide, the Fed event grouped multiple rate-decision markets and exposed different holder structures for “no change,” an increase, and a decrease.
That is more informative than describing the entire event as bullish or bearish. A wallet can hold YES in one outcome and NO in another as part of one probability distribution.
Inspect a wallet without losing market context
When a wallet node looks important, ask:
- How large is this position relative to the wallet’s visible portfolio?
- What was the approximate entry price and when did entry occur?
- Is the wallet active across related outcomes?
- Is the position open, reduced, or resolved?
- Does the account have a sufficiently broad resolved sample?
- Could the position be a hedge or liquidity strategy?
- Would your own entry receive the same price and liquidity?
Then move to Hunch Tracking for the wallet-first view. Graph should remain the tool for understanding the relationship around a market; Tracking should hold the deeper account evaluation.
A practical conviction workflow
Step 1: choose a market you understand
Read the contract and resolution rule before looking at holders.
Step 2: inspect both sides
Record tracked capital, minority share, holder count, and largest-holder concentration.
Step 3: compare related outcomes
Check whether the apparent thesis is isolated or part of an event-level hedge.
Step 4: inspect two or three representative wallets
Choose the largest holder, a meaningful counter-side holder, and one wallet with useful history.
Step 5: check execution
Return to the event ticket and inspect spread, depth, current ask or bid, and exit liquidity. Wallet research does not make a bad order book tradable.
Step 6: write a falsifiable thesis
State what new information or market movement would make you reconsider. “Whales are buying” is not falsifiable enough.