A market can be interesting without being tradable. Viral attention, high volume, or dramatic odds do not guarantee a reasonable entry and exit. A useful discovery process starts with the question, then screens liquidity, spread, open interest, expiry, market age, and current executable depth. Hunch Markets and Discovery help narrow the universe; the event ticket decides whether the selected order is actually workable.
The four metrics traders confuse most often
| Metric | What it measures | What it does not prove |
|---|---|---|
| Volume | Historical traded value over a period | Current depth or ability to exit |
| Liquidity | Available ability to trade near current prices | Contract quality or correct probability |
| Open interest | Outstanding exposure that has not been closed or settled | Shares offered at the current bid or ask |
| Spread | Difference between best bid and best ask | Depth beyond the best price |
Swipe to view all columns →
Use them together. A market can have high lifetime volume but a wide current spread, or large open interest with little immediate exit liquidity.
Start with a question you can evaluate
Do not begin with a leaderboard and assume the top market is the best opportunity. Begin with an event whose rule and evidence you can understand.
Before screening execution, ask:
- What exactly resolves YES?
- Which source decides?
- When does the market stop counting evidence?
- What information could change the probability?
- Why might the current crowd be wrong?
If you cannot explain the contract in one sentence, more liquidity only makes it easier to trade something you do not understand.
Use Hunch Markets for structured screening
The current Hunch Markets implementation includes search, venue selection, category controls, favorites, and sorts such as trend, momentum, volume, liquidity, open interest, 24-hour change, expiry, and market age. Screening controls can include volume, probability range, end date, market age, and spread.
Each sort answers a different question:
| Sort or filter | Reader job |
|---|---|
| Trending | Find current attention and activity |
| Momentum | Find acceleration rather than total scale |
| Volume | Find heavily traded markets |
| Liquidity | Find markets with more executable capacity |
| Open interest | Find larger outstanding exposure |
| 24-hour change | Find rapid probability movement |
| Expiry | Find near- or long-dated contracts |
| Market age | Find newly listed or established markets |
| Spread | Avoid markets with poor top-of-book pricing |
Swipe to view all columns →
No sort is a quality score. It is a way to reduce the search space.
Use Discovery to explore topics, not tickers
Hunch Discovery clusters markets into themes and lets the reader move from broad topics toward individual events. The production surface can size or rank groups using market count, liquidity, open interest, or 24-hour volume.
That is useful when you know the topic—macro, elections, crypto, sports—but not the exact contract.
Discovery is not a forecast engine. A large visual cluster means the chosen metric is large, not that its markets are mispriced.
Screen liquidity before probability
A 30% probability can look attractive, but a trader buys at the ask and sells at the bid. Inspect:
- best ask for the intended buy;
- best bid for a possible exit;
- shares available at both;
- average price for the intended amount;
- depth one or two levels away;
- whether an AMM quote has material price impact.
Liquidity is amount-specific. A market can be liquid for a $20 trade and illiquid for a $2,000 trade.
Calculate the spread
spread = best ask − best bid
If the best bid is 47 cents and the best ask is 51 cents, the spread is four cents. Buying and immediately selling one share would lose roughly that spread before fees and movement.
You can also express spread relative to the midpoint, but the absolute cents often communicate prediction-market cost more clearly.
Spread can widen when:
- news creates uncertainty;
- market makers reduce risk;
- expiry approaches;
- the market is thin;
- one side of the book is consumed.
Interpret volume correctly
Volume answers “how much traded?” It can identify attention and historical activity. It does not tell you:
- whether current bids and asks are tight;
- whether volume came from one burst;
- whether the same accounts traded repeatedly;
- whether an exit is available now;
- whether the contract is well designed.
Compare recent volume with current liquidity. A market with huge past volume and an empty book should not pass an execution screen.
Interpret open interest correctly
Open interest represents outstanding positions or exposure under the venue’s methodology. It can show that capital remains committed to the market.
It is not an order book. A holder does not become an available seller until an order is placed.
High open interest plus low liquidity can mean many positions exist but are difficult to transfer at a fair price. That matters for exits and for the reliability of an amount-specific quote.
Add expiry and market age
Near-expiry markets can react quickly and lose liquidity after decisive information arrives. Long-dated markets can lock capital and remain sensitive to rule interpretation.
New markets can offer early information discovery but often have:
- wider spreads;
- lower depth;
- fewer informed participants;
- unresolved rule questions.
Established markets can be easier to execute but more crowded. Use age as context, not as an automatic opportunity signal.
Compare venues when a match exists
If Hunch shows a similar market on another venue, compare:
- exact rules and deadline;
- executable ask or bid;
- liquidity and amount-specific average;
- market type and order support;
- fees;
- collateral and account readiness.
A different price can reflect a different contract or stale book. It becomes useful only after the reason is understood.
Treat Quick Buy as a shortcut, not research
Quick Buy reduces interaction cost after the market has been reviewed. It should not replace:
- reading the contract;
- selecting the correct outcome;
- checking the venue;
- inspecting execution price and amount;
- confirming risk.
The first use of a market should go through the full event and review workflow. Any future shortcut should still expose an authoritative final confirmation.
A repeatable market screen
1. Define the topic and thesis
Write the event and evidence you understand.
2. Use Markets or Discovery
Search directly or explore a topic cluster.
3. Apply tradability filters
Set minimum liquidity or volume, acceptable spread, expiry, market age, and venue.
4. Open the exact event
Read the full rule and resolution source.
5. Test your actual amount
Enter the intended size without submitting. Record average price, shares, fee, spread, and available balance.
6. Plan the exit
Check the current bid, depth, expiry, and whether limit orders are supported.
7. Compare the thesis with the price
Only now decide whether the market is worth trading.
Common false positives
- High volume with a wide current spread.
- Large open interest with weak exit liquidity.
- Rapid 24-hour change after the relevant news is already priced.
- A new market with attractive odds but ambiguous rules.
- A “cheap” one-cent share with almost no realistic path to settlement.
- A cross-venue difference caused by mismatched deadlines.
- A Quick Buy preset that is too large for visible depth.