Data methodology

A price without context is not evidence.

Prediction-market prices are easy to quote and easy to misrepresent. Our methodology keeps venue, timestamp, liquidity, and contract rules attached to the number.

Last reviewed · 14 August 2026

Market identity

Cross-venue comparisons are made only when contracts describe a materially equivalent outcome. Differences in cutoff time, eligible sources, wording, dispute process, or resolution rules are disclosed instead of being flattened into a false match.

Price and execution

  • Bid and ask are preferred over an isolated last trade.
  • Executable comparisons state the order size and account for visible spread, fees, and expected slippage when available.
  • A displayed probability is a market price interpretation, not a guarantee or Hunch forecast.

Timestamps and revisions

Data tables and charts identify when the snapshot was collected. A live refresh changes the data timestamp, not the article's publication date. Editorial dates change only when the explanation, sourcing, conclusion, or instructions change materially.

Known limitations

Venue APIs can be delayed, unavailable, or inconsistent; visible liquidity may disappear before execution; and fees can vary by venue, contract, jurisdiction, and account. Articles should state material gaps rather than interpolate certainty.