Risk disclosure

A probability is not a promise.

Hunch Journal provides information and product education, not personalized financial, legal, or tax advice.

Last reviewed · 14 August 2026

Trading risk

Prediction-market positions can lose some or all of their value. Market prices can move sharply, liquidity can disappear, orders may fill partially, and a correct view of an event can still lose if the contract resolves under different terms than expected.

Venue and resolution risk

Venues use different rules, sources, dispute mechanisms, fees, custody models, and access restrictions. Read the definitive market rules on the venue before trading. A cross-venue price gap is not automatically risk-free arbitrage.

Availability and compliance

Product and venue availability depends on jurisdiction, account eligibility, and changing regulation. Readers are responsible for determining which services and transactions are permitted for them and for obtaining professional advice where needed.

Data limitations

Quotes, charts, fees, and liquidity can be delayed or incomplete. Verify current order details and contract terms at the point of execution. Past market accuracy or trader performance does not guarantee future results.